Regional Workshop LAC_GHG emission projections

Demystifying and improving GHG projections and mitigation scenarios: Conclusions from the Latin American Regional Workshop


Projections and scenarios can play an important role in providing decision-makers with information for NDC planning and implementation. They can help to identify the sectors expecting the largest increases in emissions and to estimate the effects of mitigation actions, and they indicate where planned investments are not compatible with the NDC. However, it is not the case that every projection and scenario model suits every context, and decision-makers need to carefully determine the underlying assumptions to ensure that the results they obtain from these processes are meaningful. On 12–14 September, 47 government representatives from 15 countries in the Partnership on Transparency in the Paris Agreement’s Latin American regional group, as well as 11 experts and representatives from a number of organisations (ECLAC, FAO, GIZ, IDB, LEDS LAC, Fundación Bariloche and Libélula), gathered in Buenos Aires to exchange their experiences in drawing up greenhouse gas (GHG) projections and mitigation scenarios with a focus on the LULUCF and energy sectors. This choice of topic was based on the outcomes of last year’s event.

The workshop was organised by the Partnership on Transparency in the Paris Agreement, financed by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety and hosted by Argentina’s Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development. In addition, the FAO, GIZ, the Latin American Network on GHG Inventories (RedINGEI) and the UNFCCC provided conceptual support.

The main conclusions of the workshop are as follows:

  • The countries of the region share many common features in terms of the challenges they face in developing GHG projections and mitigation scenarios. At the same time, the diversity of NDC target types in the region provides an opportunity to compare approaches. One finding for many participants was that it is much easier to monitor an absolute GHG reduction target.
  • Scenario processes need to be tailored to national needs and flexible to adapt to new circumstances/developments. In addition, the models used must be balanced in terms of their complexity and usefulness and must take into account the quality of the information available in the country. The focus should not be on using the most advanced models; rather, it should be on improving data quality and translating data into a language suitable for communicating with decision-makers and on translating scenarios/projections into policy.
  • The LULUCF sector remains a major challenge for countries in the region, as data quality is often poor and the drivers of deforestation are difficult to regulate.
  • Inter-institutional coordination is a prerequisite for successful processes. Institutional arrangements for effective data collection, the regular production or revision of scenarios and the agreement of objectives are fundamental to the sustainability of efforts. The link with academia is necessary and needs to be strengthened.
  • Political will is important in this context. In addition, several successful cases show that it is also important to have technical capacities in place to be able to take advantage of windows of opportunity, such as changes in government or new circumstances.
  • It is important to ensure consistency between inventories, GHG projections and mitigation scenarios. Consistency can be improved by coordinating with sectors and institutions and agreeing on the main assumptions regarding particularly sensitive factors (GDP, population, project discount rate) and the ‘drivers’ of emissions in different sectors. To this end, it is also necessary to find a common language that political, technical and economic actors can share.
  • Working to continuously improve the collection and systematisation of reliable data is key to ensure the development of MRV systems that are robust enough to facilitate internal work (good data as a basis for decision-making) and international reporting.
  • The early involvement of actors in the development of scenarios is essential to ensure their relevance, legitimacy and credibility. It is necessary to design processes that offer space for political discussions, technical work and the transfer of results to decision-makers.

Día 1

Bloque 1: Apertura

Bloque 2: Introducción a procesos de proyección y escenarios de GEI y mitigación

Bloque 3: Proyectando emisiones de GEI

Día 2

Bloque 4: Herramientas (en paralelo - separado por sector)

  1. Sector Energía
  • Deep dive sobre LEAP
  • Presentación interactiva de la herramienta LEAP
  1. Sector UTCUTS

Bloque 5:  Coherencia y vinculación entre escenarios (sectoriales), las NDCs (incl. su seguimiento) e inventarios

  • Presentación Introductoria: Coherencia entre los inventarios de GEI y los escenarios a nivel sectorial / Lucio Santos, FAO
  • Caso buena práctica sobre coherencia entre nivel de referencia e inventarios / Yasna Rojas Ponce, INFOR, Chile

Día 3

Bloque 6: Involucramiento de actores en procesos de escenarios

Durante el taller se creó una caja de herramientas (toolbox) en la que se proporcionaron muchos enlaces y documentos. Todos ellos están disponibles para su descarga a la derecha en la columna que dice "downloads" y "links".